12 µg/m³ measured at Jasper, 1 km away, at Aug 07, 10:00AM. The NowCast smoke average is 10 µg/m³ — Moderate on the US EPA scale. Environment Canada's Air Quality Health Index nearby is 3.
Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged outdoor exertion.
Forecasts show smoke increasing, peaking near 122 µg/m³ within the next 48 hours.
Smoke is expected to arrive around Aug 07, 5:00PM and clear by about Aug 08, 5:00PM.
1–3 low · 4–6 moderate · 7–10 high · 10+ very high · Forecast squares are Environment Canada's official AQHI period maximums.
● Observed (hourly) · ● FireSmoke · ● FireWork
Background bands (US EPA AQI, 24-h basis): ■ Good · ■ Moderate · ■ Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups · ■ Unhealthy · ■ Very Unhealthy
| Model | Peak PM2.5 | Peak around |
|---|---|---|
| FireSmoke (UBC BlueSky) | 3 µg/m³ | Aug 07, 7:00PM |
| FireWork (ECCC) | 122 µg/m³ | Aug 07, 7:00PM |
Model values are for the ~10 km grid cell nearest Jasper; the two models are independent and often disagree — treat the higher value as the cautious planning number.
Observations and NowCast are total PM2.5 — wildfire smoke plus every other source — as regulatory monitors measure it, and FireWork models that same total. FireSmoke is a smoke-dispersion model: it estimates the wildfire contribution only, so it reads lower than the monitors whenever other sources matter. The map's optional plume layer is likewise fires-only.
Little smoke at the surface or overhead.
● At the ground · ● Overhead (relative)
Overhead smoke dims the sun but is not what you breathe. The dashed line is the column total scaled to a typical mixed plume, so it is comparable in shape, not in units · Data: ECCC FireWork
20-day record · 1 nearby monitors
| Model | Typical error | Tendency |
|---|---|---|
| FireWork | 15.7 µg/m³ | reads low 14.2 |
| FireSmoke | 23.2 µg/m³ | reads low 15.3 |
Mean absolute error and average tendency in µg/m³, from forecasts verified 0–6 hours ahead at monitors within 50 km. A short-range record, not a measure of how far ahead a model stays reliable. FireSmoke and HRRR model wildfire smoke only, so they read below the monitors whenever other sources of PM2.5 matter.
Open the live chart for Jasper — hourly observations, NowCast and both model forecasts.
See the Alberta-wide forecast — every monitor, ranked →
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