1 µg/m³ NowCast — Good on the US EPA scale — the median across 12 monitors in Fort McMurray - Fort MacKay. Individual monitors run 0–1 µg/m³, highest at Conklin East. Environment Canada's Air Quality Health Index nearby is 1.
1 µg/m³ measured at Athabasca Valley, 1 km away, at Aug 06, 11:00AM.
Air quality is good — ideal for outdoor activities.
Forecast concentrations stay near current levels over the next 48 hours.
No significant smoke is expected in the next 48 hours.
1–3 low · 4–6 moderate · 7–10 high · 10+ very high · Forecast squares are Environment Canada's official AQHI period maximums.
● Observed — hourly median · ● FireSmoke · ● FireWork · ▬ range across monitors
Background bands (US EPA AQI, 24-h basis): ■ Good · ■ Moderate
| Model | Peak PM2.5 | Peak around |
|---|---|---|
| FireSmoke (UBC BlueSky) | 1 µg/m³ | Aug 06, 2:00PM |
| FireWork (ECCC) | 2 µg/m³ | Aug 07, 1:00PM |
Model values are for the ~10 km grid cell nearest Fort McMurray; the two models are independent and often disagree — treat the higher value as the cautious planning number.
Observations and NowCast are total PM2.5 — wildfire smoke plus every other source — as regulatory monitors measure it, and FireWork models that same total. FireSmoke is a smoke-dispersion model: it estimates the wildfire contribution only, so it reads lower than the monitors whenever other sources matter. The map's optional plume layer is likewise fires-only.
Little smoke at the surface or overhead.
● At the ground · ● Overhead (relative)
Overhead smoke dims the sun but is not what you breathe. The dashed line is the column total scaled to a typical mixed plume, so it is comparable in shape, not in units · Data: ECCC FireWork
19-day record · 5 nearby monitors
| Model | Typical error | Tendency |
|---|---|---|
| FireWork | 11.3 µg/m³ | reads low 2.6 |
| FireSmoke | 15.2 µg/m³ | reads low 14.5 |
Mean absolute error and average tendency in µg/m³, from forecasts verified 0–6 hours ahead at monitors within 50 km. A short-range record, not a measure of how far ahead a model stays reliable. FireSmoke and HRRR model wildfire smoke only, so they read below the monitors whenever other sources of PM2.5 matter.
Open the live chart for Athabasca Valley — hourly observations, NowCast and both model forecasts.