Calgary, Alberta — Wildfire Smoke Forecast

Live PM2.5, AQHI and 48-hour smoke-model outlook · updated Aug 06, 12:25PM MDT

Current air quality

7 µg/m³ NowCast — Good on the US EPA scale — the median across 4 monitors in City of Calgary. Individual monitors run 7–7 µg/m³, highest at Calgary Northwest. Environment Canada's Air Quality Health Index nearby is 2.

6 µg/m³ measured at Calgary Central2, 1 km away, at Aug 06, 11:00AM.

Air quality is good — ideal for outdoor activities.

Forecasts show smoke increasing, peaking near 52 µg/m³ within the next 48 hours.

Smoke is expected to arrive around Aug 07, 4:00PM and clear by about Aug 08, 3:00AM.

AQHI — now & forecast (Environment Canada)

2Now
4Thu
3Thu night
4Fri
4Fri night

1–3 low · 4–6 moderate · 7–10 high · 10+ very high · Forecast squares are Environment Canada's official AQHI period maximums.

Last 24 hours across City of Calgary & next 48 hours forecast

56280now-24 h+24 h+48 hµg/m³

Observed — hourly median · FireSmoke · FireWork · HRRR · range across monitors

Background bands (US EPA AQI, 24-h basis): Good · Moderate · Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups · Unhealthy

Next 24 hours — model comparison

Next 6 hours
5–15 µg/m³
Peak around Aug 06, 7:00PM
Next 12 hours
5–20 µg/m³
Peak around Aug 06, 9:00PM
Next 24 hours
18–20 µg/m³
Peak around Aug 06, 9:00PM
Next 48 hours
22–52 µg/m³
Peak around Aug 07, 5:00PM
ModelPeak PM2.5Peak around
FireSmoke (UBC BlueSky)20 µg/m³Aug 06, 9:00PM
FireWork (ECCC)18 µg/m³Aug 07, 9:00AM
HRRR-Smoke (NOAA, 3 km)0 µg/m³Aug 06, 6:00PM

Model values are for the ~10 km grid cell nearest Calgary; the two models are independent and often disagree — treat the higher value as the cautious planning number.

Observations and NowCast are total PM2.5 — wildfire smoke plus every other source — as regulatory monitors measure it, and FireWork models that same total. FireSmoke is a smoke-dispersion model: it estimates the wildfire contribution only, so it reads lower than the monitors whenever other sources matter. The map's optional plume layer is likewise fires-only.

Sky vs. ground

Little smoke at the surface or overhead.

Sky right now
Clear sky

At the ground · Overhead (if mixed down)

0125250+6:00PM12:00AMµg/m³

Overhead smoke dims the sun but is not what you breathe. The dashed line shows the surface level if the whole column mixed through the boundary layer — a worst case, not a forecast · Data: NOAA HRRR-Smoke

Forecast track record here

19-day record · 6 nearby monitors

ModelTypical errorTendency
FireWork18.8 µg/m³reads low 16.9
FireSmoke22.9 µg/m³reads low 19.6

Mean absolute error and average tendency in µg/m³, from forecasts verified 0–6 hours ahead at monitors within 50 km. A short-range record, not a measure of how far ahead a model stays reliable. FireSmoke and HRRR model wildfire smoke only, so they read below the monitors whenever other sources of PM2.5 matter.

Monitors in City of Calgary

Open the live chart for Calgary Central2 — hourly observations, NowCast and both model forecasts.

See the Alberta-wide forecast — every monitor, ranked →

More in Alberta: Edmonton · Fort McMurray