Vancouver Metro Southwest, British Columbia — Wildfire Smoke Forecast
Live PM2.5, AQHI and 48-hour smoke-model outlook · updated Sep 20, 12:55PM PDT · covers Richmond, Delta, Tsawwassen
Current air quality and forecast
Now · observedModerate
9 µg/m³ NowCast median across 4 monitors in Metro Vancouver - SW · range 7–10, highest at Richmond South
Next 48 hoursUnhealthy for Sensitive Groups
0–38 µg/m³ · 3 models
Forecast peak38 µg/m³Sep 21, 2:00AM · FireWork
Smoke is expected to arrive around Sep 21, 2:00AM and clear by about Sep 21, 4:00PM.
Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged outdoor exertion.
AQHI — now & forecast (Environment Canada)
2Now
3Sun
3Sun night
3Mon
3Mon night
1–3 low · 4–6 moderate · 7–10 high · 10+ very high · Forecast squares are Environment Canada's official AQHI period maximums.
Last 24 hours across Metro Vancouver - SW & next 48 hours forecast
range across monitors
Background bands (US EPA AQI, 24-h basis): ■ Good · ■ Moderate · ■ Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups
Forecast
Next 6 hours
0–25 µg/m³
Peak around Sep 20, 3:00PM
Next 12 hours
0–32 µg/m³
Peak around Sep 21, 1:00AM
Next 24 hours
0–38 µg/m³
Peak around Sep 21, 2:00AM
Next 48 hours
0–38 µg/m³
Peak around Sep 21, 2:00AM
Next 24 hours — model comparison3 models · 24-hour peak table
Model
Peak PM2.5
Peak around
FireSmoke (UBC BlueSky)
0 µg/m³
Sep 20, 3:00PM
FireWork (ECCC)
38 µg/m³
Sep 21, 2:00AM
HRRR-Smoke (NOAA, 3 km)
0 µg/m³
Sep 21, 6:00AM
Model values are for the nearest forecast grid cell to Vancouver Metro Southwest;
FireSmoke, FireWork and HRRR are independent and often disagree — treat the highest available value
as the cautious planning number.
Observations and NowCast are total PM2.5 — wildfire smoke plus every other source — as regulatory monitors measure it, and FireWork models that same total. FireSmoke and HRRR-Smoke estimate the wildfire contribution only, so they read lower than the monitors whenever other sources matter. The optional map plume surfaces are likewise fires-only.
Sky vs. ground
Little smoke at the surface or overhead.
Sky right now
Clear sky
● At the ground
· ● Overhead (if mixed down)
Overhead smoke dims the sun but is not what you breathe. The dashed line shows the surface level if the whole column mixed through the boundary layer — a worst case, not a forecast · Data: NOAA HRRR-Smoke; cloud cover is from the model, not observed
Nearby fires
150 km radius
Fire snapshot updated 2026-09-20 19:50 UTC
Within 150 km, agencies report 1 Out of control · 12 Being held · 9 Under control.
Out of control1 fire
V62254
104 km away · 0.009 ha · discovered 2026-09-19 · BCWS
Fire number V62254Coastal Fire Centre16km Nitinat MainCause: Person
Proximity and wind direction do not prove that a fire caused smoke at this location. Sources: BC Wildfire Service in British Columbia; Natural Resources Canada CWFIS elsewhere.
Forecast track record here
29-day record · 18 nearby monitors
Model
Typical error
Tendency
FireWork
4.8 µg/m³
reads high 3.9
FireSmoke
5.8 µg/m³
reads low 2.7
Mean absolute error and average tendency in µg/m³, from forecasts verified 0–6 hours ahead at monitors within 50 km. A short-range record, not a measure of how far ahead a model stays reliable. FireSmoke and HRRR model wildfire smoke only, so they read below the monitors whenever other sources of PM2.5 matter.