Montreal, Quebec — Wildfire Smoke Forecast

Live PM2.5, AQHI and 48-hour smoke-model outlook · updated Aug 06, 2:25PM EDT

Current air quality

7 µg/m³ NowCast — Good on the US EPA scale — the median across 10 monitors in Metro Montréal - Laval. Individual monitors run 7–9 µg/m³, highest at Molson.

6 µg/m³ measured at St-Dominique, 1 km away, at Aug 06, 2:00PM.

Air quality is good — ideal for outdoor activities.

Forecasts show smoke increasing, peaking near 30 µg/m³ within the next 48 hours.

No significant smoke is expected in the next 48 hours.

AQHI — now & forecast (Environment Canada)

27IQA now (Québec)
3Thu
3Thu night
3Fri
3Fri night

IQA: Bon (good) 0–25 · Acceptable 26–50 · Mauvais (poor) 51+ · 1–3 low · 4–6 moderate · 7–10 high · 10+ very high · Forecast squares are Environment Canada's official AQHI period maximums.

Last 24 hours across Metro Montréal - Laval & next 48 hours forecast

37180now-24 h+24 h+48 hµg/m³

Observed — hourly median · FireSmoke · FireWork · HRRR · range across monitors

Background bands (US EPA AQI, 24-h basis): Good · Moderate · Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups

Next 24 hours — model comparison

Next 6 hours
0–10 µg/m³
Peak around Aug 06, 7:00PM
Next 12 hours
0–10 µg/m³
Peak around Aug 06, 7:00PM
Next 24 hours
1–18 µg/m³
Peak around Aug 07, 6:00AM
Next 48 hours
1–30 µg/m³
Peak around Aug 08, 12:00AM
ModelPeak PM2.5Peak around
FireSmoke (UBC BlueSky)1 µg/m³Aug 07, 1:00PM
FireWork (ECCC)18 µg/m³Aug 07, 6:00AM
HRRR-Smoke (NOAA, 3 km)0 µg/m³Aug 06, 4:00PM

Model values are for the ~10 km grid cell nearest Montreal; the two models are independent and often disagree — treat the higher value as the cautious planning number.

Observations and NowCast are total PM2.5 — wildfire smoke plus every other source — as regulatory monitors measure it, and FireWork models that same total. FireSmoke is a smoke-dispersion model: it estimates the wildfire contribution only, so it reads lower than the monitors whenever other sources matter. The map's optional plume layer is likewise fires-only.

Sky vs. ground

Little smoke at the surface or overhead.

Sky right now
Clear sky

At the ground · Overhead (if mixed down)

028568:00PM2:00AMµg/m³

Overhead smoke dims the sun but is not what you breathe. The dashed line shows the surface level if the whole column mixed through the boundary layer — a worst case, not a forecast · Data: NOAA HRRR-Smoke

Forecast track record here

19-day record · 12 nearby monitors

ModelTypical errorTendency
FireWork4.8 µg/m³reads high 0.8
FireSmoke8.0 µg/m³reads low 7.8

Mean absolute error and average tendency in µg/m³, from forecasts verified 0–6 hours ahead at monitors within 50 km. A short-range record, not a measure of how far ahead a model stays reliable. FireSmoke and HRRR model wildfire smoke only, so they read below the monitors whenever other sources of PM2.5 matter.

Monitors in Metro Montréal - Laval

Open the live chart for St-Dominique — hourly observations, NowCast and both model forecasts.

See the Quebec-wide forecast — every monitor, ranked →

More in Quebec: Quebec City · Gatineau